Sunday, August 13, 2017
Thursday, February 23, 2017
2016 NFL Pointspread Result Summary
The 2016 NFL season was marked by superior pointspread performance by favorites with straight-up winning percentages at the time of the game. From week 3 through the super bowl, favorites with winning overall records compiled 76 wins and 57 losses versus the spread. That computes to 57.1% winners by simply playing favorites with winning records, good news for John Q. Public
Conversely, the 2014 and 2015 NFL seasons show 134 wins and 145 losses versus the spread for favorites with winning records. In fact, going back to 2002 not counting the 2016 season, the pointspread record for favorites with winning records at the time of the game is 999 wins and 1043 losses.
This is worth a look for next season.
Conversely, the 2014 and 2015 NFL seasons show 134 wins and 145 losses versus the spread for favorites with winning records. In fact, going back to 2002 not counting the 2016 season, the pointspread record for favorites with winning records at the time of the game is 999 wins and 1043 losses.
This is worth a look for next season.
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
The Ultimate Under
After more than 30 years of handicapping experience, I discovered an NFL totals tendency that I can say without a doubt is the strongest winning development I have ever come across in my handicapping efforts. How can I make such a bold statement you ask? Without sounding like a typical phony tout service, consider an NFL betting trend that covers about 67% of the time dating back to the 2002 season and averages about 11 plays per season. Sound good so far?
But before any trend can be qualified that puts hard earned money in harm’s way, it must prove to be relevant. Relevance in handicapping means the betting tendency is based on the current performance levels of the teams and the handicapping analysis features a matchup of the opposing performance levels for each NFL game. Think about it. How can you handicap a contest without factoring in how well each team is playing at the time of the contest?
Failure in this regard can lead to inconsistent winning tendencies based on coincidence. Unfortunately, the vast majority of NFL betting trends that are bantered about are of the coincidental variety. Handicapping decisions borne from short term coincidence are forever doomed to fail in the long term and it is only a matter of time before the long term catches up with the short term.
My illustrious trend is called the Ultimate Under and is based on what I term “scoring efficiency.” It is a measure of how hard an NFL team has to work to put points on the scoreboard and prevent the opposition from scoring. One popular method that aims to quantify scoring efficiency is yards per point and it is calculated just as it says: divide total yards gained by points scored for an offensive rating and divide total yards allowed by points allowed for a defensive rating.
The lower the offensive yards per point rating, the more efficient is the scoring offense as fewer yards from scrimmage are needed to score points. Conversely, the higher the defensive yards per point rating, the more efficient is the defense at preventing points as the opposition needs to gain more real estate to score points.
What is nice about yards per point is that it factors in red zone scoring efficiency and average starting field position – two key components to consider when betting totals. The Ultimate Under is based on yards per point matchups with home field advantage, red zone efficiency and strength of schedule considerations. In addition, pointspread and total ranges are included in the analysis. Therefore, the Ultimate Under conveys relevance to sound handicapping principals and practices.
Refer to the left column heading titled Home of the Ultimate Under for the seasonal results.
Saturday, August 10, 2013
Handicapping the Early NFL Season
First and foremost, forget about handicapping or betting NFL pre-season contests. NFL coaches basically use these games to fill out the remaining roster spots. It is not about preparing seasoned vets for the upcoming season. The starting positions are largely set and the primary objective is to avoid injuries to key players. Like it or not, preseason football is all about generating additional money from the season ticket holders and television contracts for the league and teams. AND unscrupulous handicappers who claim they know how to pick winners in the preseason.
Regardless of what some self-proclaimed experts may want you to believe, there is no magical inside information that will predict the outcome of an NFL pre-season tilt. Even if the starters play well into the third period which usually occurs in each team’s third pre-season game, the games are still being finished out by a host of reserves where anything can happen to affect the outcome.
Why risk hard earned money on a 50-50 proposition where you are subject to the vigorish? This is surely a long term losing formula. I liken betting on NFL pre-season games to shooting craps, except you have to shoot 6 instead of 7. It’s a crapshoot with bad odds because of the vig and the handicapping information is worthless.
Matchup Handicapping begins making selections week 3 of the NFL season as Matchup Handicapping bases its ratings on at least three real games during the season. This means that the first two weeks are used only for data collection purposes.
Thursday, August 8, 2013
Wagering Guidelines
Matchup Handicapping can provide cappers and bettors with a “house advantage” in picking NFL pointspread winners. Since it requires 52.38 percent pointspread winners to break even at 10 percent juice with all wagers of equal amount, the house advantage is defined as a long term winning venture that can provide 54 to 58 percent against the spread (ATS) winners over the course of an NFL season. Such an advantage realistically places cappers and bettors in a winning environment and I maintain that an ATS winning percentage of 54 to 58 percent over an NFL season is a highly realistic and an optimistic expectation and REALISTIC.
Now, many people may think this is too low of a winning percentage to be worth risking hard earned money, but I beg to differ. The key to winning and maximizing profits with a "modest" winning percentage is to have a sufficient number of plays. For example, a bettor actually turns a higher profit with 56 percent winners over 100 plays than with 70 percent winners over 20 plays assuming all wagers are equal amounts. Besides, most cappers and bettors love the greater amount of action. Thus, Matchup Handicapping was designed to achieve a modest winning percentage with a relatively high yield of plays. Besides, I have no idea of how to pick consistent 70% winners. I'll leave that to the scamming touts.
Since a moderate winning percentage should experience a variety of winning and losing streaks, there is no guarantee on any specific time frame for posting a winning record. The cold reality is that there will be losing streaks that could last weeks or even months. Why? Because 55 percent winners equate to 45 percent losers that will certainly lead to down periods. Remember, sports handicapping is not an exact science and there is no such games as locks or guaranteed plays. Again, I will leave the locks and guarantees to the sales pitches of the tout services. Have your credit card number ready!
Think of a weighted coin that will flip the heads side up about 56 percent of the time. Would a bettor feel good betting the heads side up? You better believe it. With a 56 percent advantage, the proper wagering strategy would be to risk small amounts on many coin flips. Sure there will be losing streaks where tails are out-flipping the heads, but the 56 percent advantage should certainly provide a long term winning prospect. The absolute wrong strategy would be to risk large amounts at a time since a 56 percent advantage hardly qualifies as a can’t lose proposition. If the wagers are too high, a losing streak could wipe out the bankroll, nullifying the 56 percent advantage.
Any wise and disciplined money management approach requires a bankroll to begin the season. The bankroll amount is a lump sum of cash set aside in a separate account and is what the player can afford to lose without undermining or destabilizing the bettor’s livelihood. Think of it as strictly disposable income for investment or venture capital enterprises. The paramount question to ask of oneself is “can I afford to lose all this money?” If and only if the answer is yes, then you can start making wagers.
I recommend that all wagers during a season be 5 percent or 1/20th of the starting bankroll amount for a winning wager for two reasons. One, a winning strategy risks small wagers over a frequent number of plays; and two, there just isn’t a large enough winning percentage disparity to warrant some plays being worth more than others. For example, if your starting bankroll is $10,000, your betting unit will be risk $550 to win $500 per each and every wager.
Matchup Handicapping generally offers about 5 NFL plays per week during the regular season weeks 4 through 17. Another 4 or so plays occur during the playoffs on average. This generates about 75 plays per NFL season. A 55% winning percentage would yield about 41 wins and 34 losses ATS, or a gain of 3.6 units to the bankroll, assuming a 10% juice. Using our starting bankroll of $10,000 and assuming the 55% success rate, the season winnings would be 3.6 x $500 = $1,800 for about 5 months of work. Under this scenario, you would exit the season with $11,800. How is your 401K and savings investments performing lately?
Gambler’s Fallacy
Many bettors hold to the mistaken belief that the chances of winning increase during losing periods. For example, if a handicapping method typically produces 54 to 58 percent winners and the last five bets were losers, bettors suffering from gambler’s fallacy will believe that their next wager will have an increased chance of winning. Often times this disastrous thought process leads to larger wagers because the gamblers feel they are “due” to win. Unfortunately, anyone who believes they are due to win are many times only increasing the probability of losing. Progressive betting schemes are the result of gambler’s fallacy and have caused the ruin of many a gambler.
The problem with this logic is the handicapping method is an inanimate entity with no memory. Each pointspread selection is unbiased and unprejudiced and independent of the last. Regardless of the outcome of prior wagers, each and every future bet will have the same 54 to 58 percent chance of winning, provided the handicapping method is truly capable of producing 54 to 58 percent winners over time. Winning and losing streaks should not be confused with gambler's fallacy.
Take note that the single biggest mistake made in sports betting is viewing it as a short term prospect. On the contrary, a successful winning strategy involves a long term and disciplined investment approach. While there are no guarantees in a winning percentage, Matchup Handicapping has a realistic understanding that a 54 to 58 percent winning percentage over an NFL season is both attainable and acceptable.
NFL Preseason
I view NFL preseason football handicapping as a total crapshoot and nothing but an exercise in forcing the action to generate an interest in a meaningless NFL pre-season game. Think about that. You are placing a wager on a meaningless event. How does one even begin to handicap such an affair? Were not the hapless Lions undefeated last year in the pre-season?
The Matchup Handicapping picks begin on week four of the NFL season as the first three games are used to generate accurate team performance ratings. Needless to say, preseason stats are not used.
Now, many people may think this is too low of a winning percentage to be worth risking hard earned money, but I beg to differ. The key to winning and maximizing profits with a "modest" winning percentage is to have a sufficient number of plays. For example, a bettor actually turns a higher profit with 56 percent winners over 100 plays than with 70 percent winners over 20 plays assuming all wagers are equal amounts. Besides, most cappers and bettors love the greater amount of action. Thus, Matchup Handicapping was designed to achieve a modest winning percentage with a relatively high yield of plays. Besides, I have no idea of how to pick consistent 70% winners. I'll leave that to the scamming touts.
Since a moderate winning percentage should experience a variety of winning and losing streaks, there is no guarantee on any specific time frame for posting a winning record. The cold reality is that there will be losing streaks that could last weeks or even months. Why? Because 55 percent winners equate to 45 percent losers that will certainly lead to down periods. Remember, sports handicapping is not an exact science and there is no such games as locks or guaranteed plays. Again, I will leave the locks and guarantees to the sales pitches of the tout services. Have your credit card number ready!
Think of a weighted coin that will flip the heads side up about 56 percent of the time. Would a bettor feel good betting the heads side up? You better believe it. With a 56 percent advantage, the proper wagering strategy would be to risk small amounts on many coin flips. Sure there will be losing streaks where tails are out-flipping the heads, but the 56 percent advantage should certainly provide a long term winning prospect. The absolute wrong strategy would be to risk large amounts at a time since a 56 percent advantage hardly qualifies as a can’t lose proposition. If the wagers are too high, a losing streak could wipe out the bankroll, nullifying the 56 percent advantage.
Any wise and disciplined money management approach requires a bankroll to begin the season. The bankroll amount is a lump sum of cash set aside in a separate account and is what the player can afford to lose without undermining or destabilizing the bettor’s livelihood. Think of it as strictly disposable income for investment or venture capital enterprises. The paramount question to ask of oneself is “can I afford to lose all this money?” If and only if the answer is yes, then you can start making wagers.
I recommend that all wagers during a season be 5 percent or 1/20th of the starting bankroll amount for a winning wager for two reasons. One, a winning strategy risks small wagers over a frequent number of plays; and two, there just isn’t a large enough winning percentage disparity to warrant some plays being worth more than others. For example, if your starting bankroll is $10,000, your betting unit will be risk $550 to win $500 per each and every wager.
Matchup Handicapping generally offers about 5 NFL plays per week during the regular season weeks 4 through 17. Another 4 or so plays occur during the playoffs on average. This generates about 75 plays per NFL season. A 55% winning percentage would yield about 41 wins and 34 losses ATS, or a gain of 3.6 units to the bankroll, assuming a 10% juice. Using our starting bankroll of $10,000 and assuming the 55% success rate, the season winnings would be 3.6 x $500 = $1,800 for about 5 months of work. Under this scenario, you would exit the season with $11,800. How is your 401K and savings investments performing lately?
Gambler’s Fallacy
Many bettors hold to the mistaken belief that the chances of winning increase during losing periods. For example, if a handicapping method typically produces 54 to 58 percent winners and the last five bets were losers, bettors suffering from gambler’s fallacy will believe that their next wager will have an increased chance of winning. Often times this disastrous thought process leads to larger wagers because the gamblers feel they are “due” to win. Unfortunately, anyone who believes they are due to win are many times only increasing the probability of losing. Progressive betting schemes are the result of gambler’s fallacy and have caused the ruin of many a gambler.
The problem with this logic is the handicapping method is an inanimate entity with no memory. Each pointspread selection is unbiased and unprejudiced and independent of the last. Regardless of the outcome of prior wagers, each and every future bet will have the same 54 to 58 percent chance of winning, provided the handicapping method is truly capable of producing 54 to 58 percent winners over time. Winning and losing streaks should not be confused with gambler's fallacy.
Take note that the single biggest mistake made in sports betting is viewing it as a short term prospect. On the contrary, a successful winning strategy involves a long term and disciplined investment approach. While there are no guarantees in a winning percentage, Matchup Handicapping has a realistic understanding that a 54 to 58 percent winning percentage over an NFL season is both attainable and acceptable.
NFL Preseason
I view NFL preseason football handicapping as a total crapshoot and nothing but an exercise in forcing the action to generate an interest in a meaningless NFL pre-season game. Think about that. You are placing a wager on a meaningless event. How does one even begin to handicap such an affair? Were not the hapless Lions undefeated last year in the pre-season?
The Matchup Handicapping picks begin on week four of the NFL season as the first three games are used to generate accurate team performance ratings. Needless to say, preseason stats are not used.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Preseason
Do yourself a favor: AVOID placing bets on the preseason games. The only people that make money in the preseason are the sportsbooks, bookies and sport services selling selections.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Beware the Big Game Hunters
NFL playoff games are played on a grand stage as each game has its own individual time slot and each game is discussed and analyzed to the nth degree during the week leading up to the game. Every playoff team is under the microscope as every "expert" from TV, radio, websites and publications are all front and center to render their opinions on how the teams will ultimately perform in their do or die scenarios. Although a lack of information is certainly not the problem, this increase in the spotlight for these particular games can present a real problem to cappers and bettors.
The need to place a wager because it is a playoff game is very prevalent in the sports betting world. The feeling of "the bigger the game, the bigger the itch to lay down some action" plagues us all. Here is where discipline needs to take the day. Bettors cannot allow themselves to fall victim to tout services and handicappers who will ALWAYS have a play on a big game. Let's face it they only get paid for offering selections.
Forcing the action at playoff time is never a good idea and will usually result in lowering the net worth of the wagering party. If you do not have a strong opinion on the game (and most you will not), then absolutely pass on the game and wait for a future opportunity. Your bankroll will thank you.
The need to place a wager because it is a playoff game is very prevalent in the sports betting world. The feeling of "the bigger the game, the bigger the itch to lay down some action" plagues us all. Here is where discipline needs to take the day. Bettors cannot allow themselves to fall victim to tout services and handicappers who will ALWAYS have a play on a big game. Let's face it they only get paid for offering selections.
Forcing the action at playoff time is never a good idea and will usually result in lowering the net worth of the wagering party. If you do not have a strong opinion on the game (and most you will not), then absolutely pass on the game and wait for a future opportunity. Your bankroll will thank you.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)