I stand corrected. After further review, it is indeed a wise choice to purchase a half-point or hook when the line is 2.5 or 3.5. When? Always when the price is right! (no more than 20% juice)
This is not a knee-jerk reaction to losing the Texans game this past Sunday at -3.5 (they won by 3). It is a conclusion based upon a pointspread study for the NFL seasons 2002 to present.
The study shows that 8.5% of all the NFL games over the time period have been decided by 3 points on the scoreboard. This is by far the most common straight-up point differential for NFL games. The fact that NFL teams kick numerous field goals throughout many a game and most overtime games are decided by a field goal certainly add to the frequency of three point scoring margins.
Furthermore, the 8.5% applies to all the games. The three point scoring margin rate increases to 10% when the line has a favorite laying 2.5 or 3.5. This makes sense because the opponents are projected to be about 3 points apart. Since 2002 to present day, there have been 243 games with the favorite laying 2.5 or 3.5, and 24 of these games finished with a three point scoring margin. Therefore, about 10% of these games would benefit from buying the hook. If you are playing the favorite, you buy down from -3.5 to -3. If you are playing the dog, you buy up from 2.5 to 3.
To prove the point, let’s analyze buying the hook over ten plays. Presume that a bettor over a period of time is playing ten favorites who are all laying 3.5 points at the standard 10% juice (110/100). Without buying any hooks, the bettor wins five and loses five. The net take is therefore -0.5 units (5-5) – (0.10 x 5).
Since there are ten games in our study and 10% of these games typically hit on three as a final scoring margin, we will assume one game had a favorite winning the game outright by three points, therefore the bettor lost one of these contests by a half-point.
Now suppose the bettor purchased the hook at 20% juice (120/100) for all these games. The bettor’s ATS record would now be five wins, four losses and one push. By buying the hook in all ten games, the one game that hit on three now becomes a push rather than a loss. The net take is now +0.2 units computed by (5-4) – (0.20 x 4).
That is a swing of 0.7 units to the plus side and if it happens three times over the course of a season, the swing is 2.1 units. It does make a positive difference.
Suppose the bettor would lose all ten bets without buying the hook and salvage a push in one of the ten games with purchased hooks. Losing all ten at 10% juice equates to -11 units (-10 – (.10 x 10). Losing nine at 20% juice and pushing one shows -10.8 units (-9 – (0.20 x 9). It is still a positive swing to buy the hook doing the worst case scenario.
Again, these findings are based on the 2.5 and 3.5 lines being at 10% juice and the hook being bought at 20% juice.
Is there a breakeven point? Yes, a breakeven point occurs when only 5% of the games land on three and the bettor only picks four out of ten winners. The bottom line is that 10% of the games are hitting on three and most bettors should be able to pick more than 40% winners.
It is the position of Matchup Handicapping that if a pointspread selection is a favorite laying 3.5 or a dog getting 2.5, purchase the half-point at 20% juice ALWAYS until further notice.
I made a mistake with an incorrect assumption and I stand corrected. I paid with a losing pick on the Texans.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Recent Performance
Recent performance in the NFL is defined as a two to four game period for Matchup Handicapping. Another important item worth considering is the use of break points. A break point is defined as a separation point between different performance levels for a given NFL team.
Look for a team's consistency over a stretch of games to determine whether recent performance is defined as two, three or four games.
The use of break points is a valuable handicapping tool for the NFL. It helps isolate more specific “current” performance levels of the NFL combatants. Since the vast majority of NFL handicappers and bettors look for consistent patterns of play in order to gauge how well teams are playing and formulate educated opinions on the games, break points are extremely relevant in the handicapping effort. And, anything that gets the attention of cappers and bettors certainly bears consideration from the linesmaker.
Look for a team's consistency over a stretch of games to determine whether recent performance is defined as two, three or four games.
The use of break points is a valuable handicapping tool for the NFL. It helps isolate more specific “current” performance levels of the NFL combatants. Since the vast majority of NFL handicappers and bettors look for consistent patterns of play in order to gauge how well teams are playing and formulate educated opinions on the games, break points are extremely relevant in the handicapping effort. And, anything that gets the attention of cappers and bettors certainly bears consideration from the linesmaker.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Pointspread Ranges
Each NFL game features a matchup of two teams that have been evaluated on their recent performance. Each team’s evaluation is assigned to one of five performance classes as discussed in previous articles. Then, the matchup is analyzed within the actual pointspread range for the game. Inclusion of the pointspread range locks in the matchup as it is perceived by the betting public and the linesmaker. I view this step as an absolute requirement because I maintain for any betting trend or tendency to have any credibility, it must factor in the applicable pointspread range.
Matchup Handicapping initially uses three pointspread ranges per game. A statistical analysis called the standard deviation conveniently divides all the spread values into normal, high or low ranges. The normal range is defined as approximately two-thirds of the values that fall within the average pointspread value. The remaining one-third of the games are where the pointspreads fall outside the normal range and are either high or low as compared to the normal range. This analysis allows the handicapper to more readily identify inaccurate pointspread values for a given game.
For example, when a good home favorite plays a good road dog, the normal pointspread range is between 2.5 and 7.5 points. A high value would be a spread greater than or equal to 8 and a low value would be a spread less than or equal to 2.
In plain terms, the three pointspread range approach for a given matchup helps show when favorites appear to be laying too many or too little points, and whether dogs appear to be getting too many or too little points.
Once the three ranges are established, the analysis proceeds with a more detailed breakdown. For example, for a given scenario, how have home favorites performed versus the pointspread when favored by less than 3 points? This more detailed pointspread range is ultimately involved the the pointspread selection process.
Matchup Handicapping initially uses three pointspread ranges per game. A statistical analysis called the standard deviation conveniently divides all the spread values into normal, high or low ranges. The normal range is defined as approximately two-thirds of the values that fall within the average pointspread value. The remaining one-third of the games are where the pointspreads fall outside the normal range and are either high or low as compared to the normal range. This analysis allows the handicapper to more readily identify inaccurate pointspread values for a given game.
For example, when a good home favorite plays a good road dog, the normal pointspread range is between 2.5 and 7.5 points. A high value would be a spread greater than or equal to 8 and a low value would be a spread less than or equal to 2.
In plain terms, the three pointspread range approach for a given matchup helps show when favorites appear to be laying too many or too little points, and whether dogs appear to be getting too many or too little points.
Once the three ranges are established, the analysis proceeds with a more detailed breakdown. For example, for a given scenario, how have home favorites performed versus the pointspread when favored by less than 3 points? This more detailed pointspread range is ultimately involved the the pointspread selection process.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
The Cost of Pay to Play
Sports gamblers all realize there is a “pay to play” cost associated with placing bets, whether in Vegas, offshore or a local book. Known as the vigorish or juice, the cost is that a straight bet pays out less in winnings than what is paid in for losses. A 10% juice is the standard vig for straight bets and means a bettor must risk in $11 to win $10 ratios. For an 11-10 wager, a losing bet costs the gambler $11 while a winning bet nets a $10 gain.
The required winning percentage for straight bets with 10% juice and all wagers being of equal value is 52.4%. Otherwise known as the breakeven point, straight game bettors must pick 11 winners out of every 21 games to straddle the line between profit and loss. Picking 50% winners is therefore a losing proposition for the gambler, but a winning proposition for the sportsbook. Hence, the sportsbook enjoys a house advantage with every placed bet. Put another way, the sportsbook has a built-in margin of error to help sustain a losing streak with no significant long term adverse impacts. Oh, the everyday gambler should be so lucky.
Thus, the gambler must win at an above average rate to overcome the vig and reap winnings. But, is 52.4% the true breakeven point? Not if you are paying for pointspread picks. Gamblers who enlist professional handicapping advice do so at a price. Thus, the pay to play costs increase even more. Now, the gambler must realize that 52.4% winners is not good enough to stay out of the red.
For example, consider a pro capper who touts a recent pointspread record of 11 winners and 9 losers for 55% winners. From the capper’s perspective, assuming all the selections were of equal value, this 55% winning percentage is certainly being advertised as a winning period. The capper can even claim that the selections have netted a plus 1.1 betting unit with all equal wagers and 10% juice. The plus 1.1 unit is computed by (11 minus 9) minus (10% times the 9 losing bets) equals 2 minus 0.9 equals plus 1.1 unit.
Why only 55% winners you ask? Because it is a realistic long term winning percentage for a professional capper. Forget about the outrageous claims of 60% or more when projecting over the long term. Remember, the single biggest mistake made by sports gamblers is focusing short term and not seeing the big picture of the long term. The tout services capitalize big time on the shortcomings of the short term outlook of many a gambler.
Unfortunately from the gambler’s perspective, the +1.1 unit does not factor in the money paid for the selections. The bettor who paid out money for these 20 selections certainly does not end up with plus 1.1 unit, but rather plus 1.1 units minus the amount of money paid to the pro capper. How can we quantify this action?
Let’s say these 20 paid selections were over a month of the NFL season (five picks per week) and a typical NFL monthly plan charges about $275. On the surface, this doesn’t appear excessive as it computes to $13.75 per pick. At the conclusion of the month, the bettor is at +1.1 betting unit minus the $275 for the handicapping service. Thus, unless the bettor is wagering $250 ($275/1.1) or more per game, the bettor has a losing month.
Using the above scenario, a $100 player would have lost $165, a $200 player would have lost $55 and the $250 player would have broke even for the month. In contrast, the pro capper is touting a winning month at 55% winners.
Looking at these numbers, unless a gambler can afford to wager at least $300 per game in the NFL, paying for selections may not be an affordable option. And don’t fall victim to the cappers who are quick to throw in baseball, basketball and college selections as well in order to increase the number of plays to reduce the per game paid selection fee. This is fine if the winning percentage is still in the 55% range after all these extra selections. If not, you may be digging a deeper hole.
Exercise caution with a “shotgun” handicapper whose claim to fame is “any sport anytime.” You don't want to pay for a jack of all trades who makes pick after pick, day after day in any and all sporting events. You want to pay for a specialist, that is a capper who truly specializes in a particular sport and has a bonafide winning track record over the long term.
It is my opinion that the smaller players would be better served doing their own research from publications and websites to formulate their own informed pointspread selections. There are numerous weekly publications that provide excellent handicapping information for the NFL games and they cost a lot less than paying a handicapping service.
The required winning percentage for straight bets with 10% juice and all wagers being of equal value is 52.4%. Otherwise known as the breakeven point, straight game bettors must pick 11 winners out of every 21 games to straddle the line between profit and loss. Picking 50% winners is therefore a losing proposition for the gambler, but a winning proposition for the sportsbook. Hence, the sportsbook enjoys a house advantage with every placed bet. Put another way, the sportsbook has a built-in margin of error to help sustain a losing streak with no significant long term adverse impacts. Oh, the everyday gambler should be so lucky.
Thus, the gambler must win at an above average rate to overcome the vig and reap winnings. But, is 52.4% the true breakeven point? Not if you are paying for pointspread picks. Gamblers who enlist professional handicapping advice do so at a price. Thus, the pay to play costs increase even more. Now, the gambler must realize that 52.4% winners is not good enough to stay out of the red.
For example, consider a pro capper who touts a recent pointspread record of 11 winners and 9 losers for 55% winners. From the capper’s perspective, assuming all the selections were of equal value, this 55% winning percentage is certainly being advertised as a winning period. The capper can even claim that the selections have netted a plus 1.1 betting unit with all equal wagers and 10% juice. The plus 1.1 unit is computed by (11 minus 9) minus (10% times the 9 losing bets) equals 2 minus 0.9 equals plus 1.1 unit.
Why only 55% winners you ask? Because it is a realistic long term winning percentage for a professional capper. Forget about the outrageous claims of 60% or more when projecting over the long term. Remember, the single biggest mistake made by sports gamblers is focusing short term and not seeing the big picture of the long term. The tout services capitalize big time on the shortcomings of the short term outlook of many a gambler.
Unfortunately from the gambler’s perspective, the +1.1 unit does not factor in the money paid for the selections. The bettor who paid out money for these 20 selections certainly does not end up with plus 1.1 unit, but rather plus 1.1 units minus the amount of money paid to the pro capper. How can we quantify this action?
Let’s say these 20 paid selections were over a month of the NFL season (five picks per week) and a typical NFL monthly plan charges about $275. On the surface, this doesn’t appear excessive as it computes to $13.75 per pick. At the conclusion of the month, the bettor is at +1.1 betting unit minus the $275 for the handicapping service. Thus, unless the bettor is wagering $250 ($275/1.1) or more per game, the bettor has a losing month.
Using the above scenario, a $100 player would have lost $165, a $200 player would have lost $55 and the $250 player would have broke even for the month. In contrast, the pro capper is touting a winning month at 55% winners.
Looking at these numbers, unless a gambler can afford to wager at least $300 per game in the NFL, paying for selections may not be an affordable option. And don’t fall victim to the cappers who are quick to throw in baseball, basketball and college selections as well in order to increase the number of plays to reduce the per game paid selection fee. This is fine if the winning percentage is still in the 55% range after all these extra selections. If not, you may be digging a deeper hole.
Exercise caution with a “shotgun” handicapper whose claim to fame is “any sport anytime.” You don't want to pay for a jack of all trades who makes pick after pick, day after day in any and all sporting events. You want to pay for a specialist, that is a capper who truly specializes in a particular sport and has a bonafide winning track record over the long term.
It is my opinion that the smaller players would be better served doing their own research from publications and websites to formulate their own informed pointspread selections. There are numerous weekly publications that provide excellent handicapping information for the NFL games and they cost a lot less than paying a handicapping service.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Cooking the Books with the Hook Slide
All NFL games have an opening line that is released to the betting public usually on Monday for the upcoming games. This is the linesmaker’s best preliminary estimate to entice equal action on both sides. As accurate as the linesmaker is at setting the initial line, there is obviously no guarantee that equal action will follow for every game. To overcome this uncertainty, sportsbooks have the capacity to adjust the line, usually in half point increments, right up to game time to keep the action balanced to the greatest extent possible.
The biggest line adjustment usually occurs right after the opening line is released. It is said that many professional gamblers will see great value in some early lines and they want to get their money placed before the line moves against them. Sportsbooks often use this first round of activity to fine-tune the pointspreads. After this adjustment period, the lines in most NFL games stabilize to a large degree. This frequently happens before many cappers and bettors even begin to look at the games on the betting card.
Yes, you will see half point differentials in Vegas and offshore books throughout the week. There are times you may even see a full point differential, but this is usually over a short time occurrence. When shopping for the best line, the key for bettors is to guess when the line is affording them the maximum value. For example, a bettor wants to back the Steelers and the accessible lines have the favored Steelers at -6 or -6.5. If the bettor feels that -6 is going to be the best line available to back the Steelers throughout the week, the bet is placed at -6. This is not to say that the line couldn’t move to -5.5 at some point later.
There is a general rule that says if you are going to play favorites, get the action down early. Conversely, if you are going to play dogs, get the action down late. Consider the logic in this process. If early money goes on the favorites, then the books will obviously increase the points for the dogs to attract the equal action. However, like everything else in life there are no guarantees that this will hold true for any given game. In fact, some games will do the direct opposite. Hence, the term is gambling.
On numerous occasions, I have heard and read comments from professional handicappers who claim that “while shopping for the best line is prudent, a half point difference (referred to as a hook) here and there over the long haul should balance out, therefore it should not have a significant impact on winning and losing.” Moreover, many pro cappers have often stated that if a half point is going to make the difference between winning and losing, one should not be in the sports betting business.
On the surface, I totally agree with this viewpoint. Due to the total randomness of how a sports contest could play out, there are certainly heavy doses of good and bad luck associated with sports betting. We all have experienced the agonizing half point defeats and the exhilarating half point victories ATS. They are inevitable. We can only hope that the half point margins balance out over time.
Unfortunately, there are many professional cappers who take an unfair advantage of an unsuspecting public with their half point tactics. This sleight of hand is accomplished when pro cappers release their plays by just giving the side or the over / under. By not listing a specific pointspread or total associated with the games, this allows them the opportunity to grab a half point should they need it to convert a loss to a push or a push to a win. In other words, they are not going to lose a game by a half point as compared to the actual posted line. If the betting client losses the game by a half point, the capper maintains that it is the bettor’s fault for not getting the best line.
Another approach is for a capper to simply post the best line or total that occurred during the entire week which reflects the best value for their selection, even though that number may have been the opening line and is no longer available at the time of the release.
Such tactics are trickery and certainly unethical. I refer to this unscrupulous practice as the “hook slide.”
So how much of an advantage is the hook slide? Dating back to the 1997 NFL season, there have been 3,148 NFL games. 100 of these games resulted in a push. 200 of these games found the final outcome to be within a half point of the posted number. 300 of these games found the final outcome to be within one point of the posted spread.
These past results show that about 6.4% of all games fall within a half point, or hook, of the spread. Therefore, for every 94 NFL games released by a handicapper, there will be approximately 6 games available for the hook slide.
Let’s say a hypothetical capper released 94 NFL plays over a season and the capper maintained his ATS record was 49 wins against 42 losses with 3 pushes. Such an ATS record represents a respectable 53.8% winning season with +2.8 units based on a 10% juice. However, it was found that this pro capper had readily employed the hook slide tactic for six games. Three of the games were losses that were converted to pushes and three of the games were pushes that were converted to wins.
Therefore, the betting client who bet the same exact 94 plays of this capper had an actual record of 46 winning bets versus 45 losing bets with 3 pushes for a losing 50.5% effort. The bettor doesn’t enjoy the luxury of the hook slide after the game result. While the pro capper was touting his service with “another” winning season, the reality of the situation had the betting client closing out the season at -3.5 units, in addition to the amount paid out for the capper’s selections. Bottom line, the bettor suffered a disappointing enterprise by finishing in the red for the NFL season.
The hook slide allows a convenient way for cappers to dupe the betting public about their ATS record. Since the hook slide affords about a 3 to 4% increase in winning percentage, you can readily see that handicappers only need about 50% winners ATS when picking about 94 NFL games to show a winning season when using the hook slide. This offers a huge advantage to the devious capper and the hook slide practice can really add up over the course of numerous seasons. For a five year period, the scam can produce an additional 40 to 50 positive plays.
Be on the lookout and follow the results closely and you will see that these scammers rarely if ever lose a game ATS by the actual half point. The games that they do show as a half point loss are probably a loss by a full point anyway. Here they are actually using the hook slide to show that they actually do lose by a hook on occasion. Not!
Use of the hook slide to an unsuspecting public is the greatest scam going by these devious “pro” cappers. In accounting terms, it is simply cooking the books to show a profit. Anyone can play pro handicapper by basically flipping a coin to make pointspread predictions and using the hook slide to rescue the losing 50-50 venture to project it into a winning effort. Unfortunately, this is an all too common “smoke and mirror” handicapping scam and there appears no way to prevent its continued use.
The biggest line adjustment usually occurs right after the opening line is released. It is said that many professional gamblers will see great value in some early lines and they want to get their money placed before the line moves against them. Sportsbooks often use this first round of activity to fine-tune the pointspreads. After this adjustment period, the lines in most NFL games stabilize to a large degree. This frequently happens before many cappers and bettors even begin to look at the games on the betting card.
Yes, you will see half point differentials in Vegas and offshore books throughout the week. There are times you may even see a full point differential, but this is usually over a short time occurrence. When shopping for the best line, the key for bettors is to guess when the line is affording them the maximum value. For example, a bettor wants to back the Steelers and the accessible lines have the favored Steelers at -6 or -6.5. If the bettor feels that -6 is going to be the best line available to back the Steelers throughout the week, the bet is placed at -6. This is not to say that the line couldn’t move to -5.5 at some point later.
There is a general rule that says if you are going to play favorites, get the action down early. Conversely, if you are going to play dogs, get the action down late. Consider the logic in this process. If early money goes on the favorites, then the books will obviously increase the points for the dogs to attract the equal action. However, like everything else in life there are no guarantees that this will hold true for any given game. In fact, some games will do the direct opposite. Hence, the term is gambling.
On numerous occasions, I have heard and read comments from professional handicappers who claim that “while shopping for the best line is prudent, a half point difference (referred to as a hook) here and there over the long haul should balance out, therefore it should not have a significant impact on winning and losing.” Moreover, many pro cappers have often stated that if a half point is going to make the difference between winning and losing, one should not be in the sports betting business.
On the surface, I totally agree with this viewpoint. Due to the total randomness of how a sports contest could play out, there are certainly heavy doses of good and bad luck associated with sports betting. We all have experienced the agonizing half point defeats and the exhilarating half point victories ATS. They are inevitable. We can only hope that the half point margins balance out over time.
Unfortunately, there are many professional cappers who take an unfair advantage of an unsuspecting public with their half point tactics. This sleight of hand is accomplished when pro cappers release their plays by just giving the side or the over / under. By not listing a specific pointspread or total associated with the games, this allows them the opportunity to grab a half point should they need it to convert a loss to a push or a push to a win. In other words, they are not going to lose a game by a half point as compared to the actual posted line. If the betting client losses the game by a half point, the capper maintains that it is the bettor’s fault for not getting the best line.
Another approach is for a capper to simply post the best line or total that occurred during the entire week which reflects the best value for their selection, even though that number may have been the opening line and is no longer available at the time of the release.
Such tactics are trickery and certainly unethical. I refer to this unscrupulous practice as the “hook slide.”
So how much of an advantage is the hook slide? Dating back to the 1997 NFL season, there have been 3,148 NFL games. 100 of these games resulted in a push. 200 of these games found the final outcome to be within a half point of the posted number. 300 of these games found the final outcome to be within one point of the posted spread.
These past results show that about 6.4% of all games fall within a half point, or hook, of the spread. Therefore, for every 94 NFL games released by a handicapper, there will be approximately 6 games available for the hook slide.
Let’s say a hypothetical capper released 94 NFL plays over a season and the capper maintained his ATS record was 49 wins against 42 losses with 3 pushes. Such an ATS record represents a respectable 53.8% winning season with +2.8 units based on a 10% juice. However, it was found that this pro capper had readily employed the hook slide tactic for six games. Three of the games were losses that were converted to pushes and three of the games were pushes that were converted to wins.
Therefore, the betting client who bet the same exact 94 plays of this capper had an actual record of 46 winning bets versus 45 losing bets with 3 pushes for a losing 50.5% effort. The bettor doesn’t enjoy the luxury of the hook slide after the game result. While the pro capper was touting his service with “another” winning season, the reality of the situation had the betting client closing out the season at -3.5 units, in addition to the amount paid out for the capper’s selections. Bottom line, the bettor suffered a disappointing enterprise by finishing in the red for the NFL season.
The hook slide allows a convenient way for cappers to dupe the betting public about their ATS record. Since the hook slide affords about a 3 to 4% increase in winning percentage, you can readily see that handicappers only need about 50% winners ATS when picking about 94 NFL games to show a winning season when using the hook slide. This offers a huge advantage to the devious capper and the hook slide practice can really add up over the course of numerous seasons. For a five year period, the scam can produce an additional 40 to 50 positive plays.
Be on the lookout and follow the results closely and you will see that these scammers rarely if ever lose a game ATS by the actual half point. The games that they do show as a half point loss are probably a loss by a full point anyway. Here they are actually using the hook slide to show that they actually do lose by a hook on occasion. Not!
Use of the hook slide to an unsuspecting public is the greatest scam going by these devious “pro” cappers. In accounting terms, it is simply cooking the books to show a profit. Anyone can play pro handicapper by basically flipping a coin to make pointspread predictions and using the hook slide to rescue the losing 50-50 venture to project it into a winning effort. Unfortunately, this is an all too common “smoke and mirror” handicapping scam and there appears no way to prevent its continued use.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Beware Handicapper Scam Artists
Many self-proclaimed "professional" handicappers dupe their clients and readers by distorting their winning percentage. The scam involves having a multitude of different size plays over a number of sports. Many handicappers rate their plays by units, stars, dimes, etc. Their contention is that the stronger plays warrant a higher wager, therefore they assign more units, stars or dimes to their stronger plays. But, the real reason behind all the various wager sizes is as follows:
Let's say a handicapper offers selections in pro and college football and basketball. This represents four sports. Let's say the handicapper offers 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50 and 100 unit plays in his picks. If you do the math, this handicapper has created 28 different categories, given there are 7 different strength plays over 4 sports. Moreover, if totals are included, there is now 56 categories to monitor. Furthermore, the winning percentages can be broken down by days, weeks or months. There is no end to the various categories that can be created in the quest to project a winning ledger.
Just thinking, what is the difference between a 20 unit and a 25 unit pick? I guess the 25 strength play has a slightly higher winning percentage. I have been at this for 30 years and I wouldn't have a clue how to make such a determination.
Since picking a pointspread winner is basically a 50-50 probability for anyone with no knowledge at all, the odds are that this capper can post a winning percentage in some of the numerous categories over the short term. For example, this capper could be touting 4 wins in last 5 plays with 15 unit plays in college football, 6 wins in last 8 plays for 10 unit plays in pro basketball, 2 wins in a row for 50 unit plays on the total in pro football, 4 winning days in last 6 days, 2 winning months in last 3 months, etc. In other words, it is really easy for a handicapper to "honestly" project a winning resume. The problem is that the capper's overall winning percentage for the season is nowhere to be found.
Don't fall victim to this practice. If a handicapper does not offer their season to date win loss record for a particular sport, the odds are the handicapper has a losing record. While the handicapper is technically not lying by just focusing on the winning categories, he or she is certainly not being totally honest and forthcoming. Such a practice is termed legal, but unethical. The scammer cappers really take advantage of this gray area.
Not all handicappers are guilty of this practice. If a bettor is considering paying a handicapper for pointspread plays, I strongly recommend that the bettor gets the season to date pointspread record for each particular sport that will be wagered on.
Remember, anybody can experience short term success in picking pointspread winners. Consistent winners are not defined as simply winning days, weeks or months. Consistent pointspread winners are defined as a winning season of plays.
Let's say a handicapper offers selections in pro and college football and basketball. This represents four sports. Let's say the handicapper offers 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50 and 100 unit plays in his picks. If you do the math, this handicapper has created 28 different categories, given there are 7 different strength plays over 4 sports. Moreover, if totals are included, there is now 56 categories to monitor. Furthermore, the winning percentages can be broken down by days, weeks or months. There is no end to the various categories that can be created in the quest to project a winning ledger.
Just thinking, what is the difference between a 20 unit and a 25 unit pick? I guess the 25 strength play has a slightly higher winning percentage. I have been at this for 30 years and I wouldn't have a clue how to make such a determination.
Since picking a pointspread winner is basically a 50-50 probability for anyone with no knowledge at all, the odds are that this capper can post a winning percentage in some of the numerous categories over the short term. For example, this capper could be touting 4 wins in last 5 plays with 15 unit plays in college football, 6 wins in last 8 plays for 10 unit plays in pro basketball, 2 wins in a row for 50 unit plays on the total in pro football, 4 winning days in last 6 days, 2 winning months in last 3 months, etc. In other words, it is really easy for a handicapper to "honestly" project a winning resume. The problem is that the capper's overall winning percentage for the season is nowhere to be found.
Don't fall victim to this practice. If a handicapper does not offer their season to date win loss record for a particular sport, the odds are the handicapper has a losing record. While the handicapper is technically not lying by just focusing on the winning categories, he or she is certainly not being totally honest and forthcoming. Such a practice is termed legal, but unethical. The scammer cappers really take advantage of this gray area.
Not all handicappers are guilty of this practice. If a bettor is considering paying a handicapper for pointspread plays, I strongly recommend that the bettor gets the season to date pointspread record for each particular sport that will be wagered on.
Remember, anybody can experience short term success in picking pointspread winners. Consistent winners are not defined as simply winning days, weeks or months. Consistent pointspread winners are defined as a winning season of plays.
Parlays
A parlay is a combination bet where all the bets fall under a single wager. Each bet must cover to win the wager. For example, a three team parlay involves three bets and if all three cover, the bettor collects six times the wager amount. Sounds good except for the fact it only takes one bet to lose and the total wager amount is lost. Important to note is that depending on the book, a push in a parlay results either in a no bet situation, or the bet is pushed down to fewer games. Under the push down rule, a push in a three team parlay converts the bet into a two team parlay and a push in a two team parlay would become a straight bet.
The inevitable question arises to whether a parlay bet is a sound investment strategy. In order to answer this question, the important number to consider is the projected success rate for picking pointspread winners. If a bettor is picking less than 52.38% winners, straight bets are better than parlays as the straight bets will lose at a slower rate than the parlays. The consolation for making straight bets would be the bankroll won’t be wiped out as fast. The bottom line is that both straight bets and parlays will be losing propositions for failure to pick consistent winners. If you cannot pick consistent winners, why are you betting anyway?
For the situation where the bettor can pick consistent winners, let’s use some statistical mathematics to crunch the probability numbers. Let’s use a two team parlay where we will back Team A and Team B. The first step is to determine all the possible outcomes for each of the two bets.
There is one combination of two wins. (Team A and Team B cover).
There are two combinations of one win and one loss. (Team A covers and Team B losses). (Team B covers and Team A losses).
There is one combination of two losses. (Team A and Team B both lose).
Thus, there are a total of four win-loss combinations, assuming there are no pushes. If a bettor picks 54% winners over a season, the individual game bet success rate is 0.54 and the individual game bet failure rate is 0.46. Applying the success and failure rates to the four possible combinations shows the following:
The probability of two winners is: 0.54 x 0.54 x 1 combination = 0.291 (29.1%)
The probability of one winner and one loser is: 0.54 x 0.46 x 2 combinations = 0.497 (49.7%)
The probability of two losers is: 0.46 x 0.46 x 1 combination = 0.212 (21.2%)
Since a winning two team parlay pays 13/5 odds, this means a successful parlay will pay out 2.6 times the wager amount. The 13/5 odds also show that 5 out of 18 (27.8%) two team parlays are required to win to break even. For a $110 parlay wager, a winning parlay will pay out $286 and if any game loses, the $110 wager will be lost. If 54% ATS winners over time are anticipated, the expected rate of return on the two team parlay bet is computed as follows:
0.291 x $286 = $83.23 (bettor has a 29.1% chance of winning $286 on successful parlay)
0.497 x -$110 = -$54.67 (bettor has a 49.7% chance of splitting the games and losing $110)
0.212 x -$110 = -$23.32 (bettor has a 21.2% chance of losing both games and losing $110)
Summing the three returns (83.23-54.67-23.32) yields an expected profit of $5.24 per parlay bet. If a bettor played 150 two team parlays at $110 each (gross risk = $16,500), the expected profit would be $786.00.
Would the bettor make more money playing straight bets? If the bettor chose straight bets for the same games, there would be 300 single wagers at $55 each (gross risk = $16,500) and 54% winners would show 162 winning bets and 138 losing bets. With a 10% juice, the profit would compute to (24 – 13.8) x $55 = $561.00. This calculation shows that at 54% winners, a two team parlay has a higher expected rate of return than straight bets.
Actually, 52.7% ATS winners are the breakeven point for two team parlay bets as compared to 52.38% ATS winners for straight bets at 10% juice. In other words, if a bettor can win more than 52.7% of the plays, the two team parlay has a higher expected rate of return than straight bets. And, three team parlays are even better.
Beware, before everyone forsakes straight bets to play all parlays, extreme words of caution need to be expressed. First of all, there is no guarantee that 54% winners will directly translate into winning 29.1% of the two team parlay bets as shown above. It is mathematically possible to only win 16 parlays out of 100 while still picking 54% winners. This worst case scenario translates into $4,664 in losses with a $110 per parlay wager. Ouch! It clearly shows that 29 parlay winners are in no way guaranteed while picking 54% winners in the individual games. Parlays are a high risk venture.
The second reason for not falling in love with parlays is that it can compel bettors to force the action. If only one game stands out on the day’s card, the bettor is likely to force another selection to generate the parlay. This is never a good idea and can quickly accelerate a losing agenda.
Parlays should be an occasional wager and only when the bettor is operating in the profit mode and has two solid plays for that day. If each straight play is worth 5% of the starting bankroll, I advise a two team parlay bet should be 2.5% at most of the starting bankroll amount, and only on occasion.
The inevitable question arises to whether a parlay bet is a sound investment strategy. In order to answer this question, the important number to consider is the projected success rate for picking pointspread winners. If a bettor is picking less than 52.38% winners, straight bets are better than parlays as the straight bets will lose at a slower rate than the parlays. The consolation for making straight bets would be the bankroll won’t be wiped out as fast. The bottom line is that both straight bets and parlays will be losing propositions for failure to pick consistent winners. If you cannot pick consistent winners, why are you betting anyway?
For the situation where the bettor can pick consistent winners, let’s use some statistical mathematics to crunch the probability numbers. Let’s use a two team parlay where we will back Team A and Team B. The first step is to determine all the possible outcomes for each of the two bets.
There is one combination of two wins. (Team A and Team B cover).
There are two combinations of one win and one loss. (Team A covers and Team B losses). (Team B covers and Team A losses).
There is one combination of two losses. (Team A and Team B both lose).
Thus, there are a total of four win-loss combinations, assuming there are no pushes. If a bettor picks 54% winners over a season, the individual game bet success rate is 0.54 and the individual game bet failure rate is 0.46. Applying the success and failure rates to the four possible combinations shows the following:
The probability of two winners is: 0.54 x 0.54 x 1 combination = 0.291 (29.1%)
The probability of one winner and one loser is: 0.54 x 0.46 x 2 combinations = 0.497 (49.7%)
The probability of two losers is: 0.46 x 0.46 x 1 combination = 0.212 (21.2%)
Since a winning two team parlay pays 13/5 odds, this means a successful parlay will pay out 2.6 times the wager amount. The 13/5 odds also show that 5 out of 18 (27.8%) two team parlays are required to win to break even. For a $110 parlay wager, a winning parlay will pay out $286 and if any game loses, the $110 wager will be lost. If 54% ATS winners over time are anticipated, the expected rate of return on the two team parlay bet is computed as follows:
0.291 x $286 = $83.23 (bettor has a 29.1% chance of winning $286 on successful parlay)
0.497 x -$110 = -$54.67 (bettor has a 49.7% chance of splitting the games and losing $110)
0.212 x -$110 = -$23.32 (bettor has a 21.2% chance of losing both games and losing $110)
Summing the three returns (83.23-54.67-23.32) yields an expected profit of $5.24 per parlay bet. If a bettor played 150 two team parlays at $110 each (gross risk = $16,500), the expected profit would be $786.00.
Would the bettor make more money playing straight bets? If the bettor chose straight bets for the same games, there would be 300 single wagers at $55 each (gross risk = $16,500) and 54% winners would show 162 winning bets and 138 losing bets. With a 10% juice, the profit would compute to (24 – 13.8) x $55 = $561.00. This calculation shows that at 54% winners, a two team parlay has a higher expected rate of return than straight bets.
Actually, 52.7% ATS winners are the breakeven point for two team parlay bets as compared to 52.38% ATS winners for straight bets at 10% juice. In other words, if a bettor can win more than 52.7% of the plays, the two team parlay has a higher expected rate of return than straight bets. And, three team parlays are even better.
Beware, before everyone forsakes straight bets to play all parlays, extreme words of caution need to be expressed. First of all, there is no guarantee that 54% winners will directly translate into winning 29.1% of the two team parlay bets as shown above. It is mathematically possible to only win 16 parlays out of 100 while still picking 54% winners. This worst case scenario translates into $4,664 in losses with a $110 per parlay wager. Ouch! It clearly shows that 29 parlay winners are in no way guaranteed while picking 54% winners in the individual games. Parlays are a high risk venture.
The second reason for not falling in love with parlays is that it can compel bettors to force the action. If only one game stands out on the day’s card, the bettor is likely to force another selection to generate the parlay. This is never a good idea and can quickly accelerate a losing agenda.
Parlays should be an occasional wager and only when the bettor is operating in the profit mode and has two solid plays for that day. If each straight play is worth 5% of the starting bankroll, I advise a two team parlay bet should be 2.5% at most of the starting bankroll amount, and only on occasion.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
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