Pointspread Ranges

Each NFL game features a matchup of two teams that have been evaluated on their recent performance. Each team’s evaluation is assigned to one of five performance classes as discussed in previous articles. Then, the matchup is analyzed within the actual pointspread range for the game. Inclusion of the pointspread range locks in the matchup as it is perceived by the betting public and the linesmaker. I view this step as an absolute requirement because I maintain for any betting trend or tendency to have any credibility, it must factor in the applicable pointspread range.

Matchup Handicapping initially uses three pointspread ranges per game. A statistical analysis called the standard deviation conveniently divides all the spread values into normal, high or low ranges. The normal range is defined as approximately two-thirds of the values that fall within the average pointspread value. The remaining one-third of the games are where the pointspreads fall outside the normal range and are either high or low as compared to the normal range. This analysis allows the handicapper to more readily identify inaccurate pointspread values for a given game.

For example, when a good home favorite plays a good road dog, the normal pointspread range is between 2.5 and 7.5 points. A high value would be a spread greater than or equal to 8 and a low value would be a spread less than or equal to 2.

In plain terms, the three pointspread range approach for a given matchup helps show when favorites appear to be laying too many or too little points, and whether dogs appear to be getting too many or too little points.

Once the three ranges are established, the analysis proceeds with a more detailed breakdown. For example, for a given scenario, how have home favorites performed versus the pointspread when favored by less than 3 points? This more detailed pointspread range is ultimately involved the the pointspread selection process.