Purchasing the Hook

I stand corrected. After further review, it is indeed a wise choice to purchase a half-point or hook when the line is 2.5 or 3.5. When? Always when the price is right! (no more than 20% juice)

This is not a knee-jerk reaction to losing the Texans game this past Sunday at -3.5 (they won by 3). It is a conclusion based upon a pointspread study for the NFL seasons 2002 to present.

The study shows that 8.5% of all the NFL games over the time period have been decided by 3 points on the scoreboard. This is by far the most common straight-up point differential for NFL games. The fact that NFL teams kick numerous field goals throughout many a game and most overtime games are decided by a field goal certainly add to the frequency of three point scoring margins.

Furthermore, the 8.5% applies to all the games. The three point scoring margin rate increases to 10% when the line has a favorite laying 2.5 or 3.5. This makes sense because the opponents are projected to be about 3 points apart. Since 2002 to present day, there have been 243 games with the favorite laying 2.5 or 3.5, and 24 of these games finished with a three point scoring margin. Therefore, about 10% of these games would benefit from buying the hook. If you are playing the favorite, you buy down from -3.5 to -3. If you are playing the dog, you buy up from 2.5 to 3.

To prove the point, let’s analyze buying the hook over ten plays. Presume that a bettor over a period of time is playing ten favorites who are all laying 3.5 points at the standard 10% juice (110/100). Without buying any hooks, the bettor wins five and loses five. The net take is therefore -0.5 units (5-5) – (0.10 x 5).

Since there are ten games in our study and 10% of these games typically hit on three as a final scoring margin, we will assume one game had a favorite winning the game outright by three points, therefore the bettor lost one of these contests by a half-point.

Now suppose the bettor purchased the hook at 20% juice (120/100) for all these games. The bettor’s ATS record would now be five wins, four losses and one push. By buying the hook in all ten games, the one game that hit on three now becomes a push rather than a loss. The net take is now +0.2 units computed by (5-4) – (0.20 x 4).

That is a swing of 0.7 units to the plus side and if it happens three times over the course of a season, the swing is 2.1 units. It does make a positive difference.

Suppose the bettor would lose all ten bets without buying the hook and salvage a push in one of the ten games with purchased hooks. Losing all ten at 10% juice equates to -11 units (-10 – (.10 x 10). Losing nine at 20% juice and pushing one shows -10.8 units (-9 – (0.20 x 9). It is still a positive swing to buy the hook doing the worst case scenario.

Again, these findings are based on the 2.5 and 3.5 lines being at 10% juice and the hook being bought at 20% juice.

Is there a breakeven point? Yes, a breakeven point occurs when only 5% of the games land on three and the bettor only picks four out of ten winners. The bottom line is that 10% of the games are hitting on three and most bettors should be able to pick more than 40% winners.

It is the position of Matchup Handicapping that if a pointspread selection is a favorite laying 3.5 or a dog getting 2.5, purchase the half-point at 20% juice ALWAYS until further notice.

I made a mistake with an incorrect assumption and I stand corrected. I paid with a losing pick on the Texans.

Recent Performance

Recent performance in the NFL is defined as a two to four game period for Matchup Handicapping. Another important item worth considering is the use of break points. A break point is defined as a separation point between different performance levels for a given NFL team.

Look for a team's consistency over a stretch of games to determine whether recent performance is defined as two, three or four games.

The use of break points is a valuable handicapping tool for the NFL. It helps isolate more specific “current” performance levels of the NFL combatants. Since the vast majority of NFL handicappers and bettors look for consistent patterns of play in order to gauge how well teams are playing and formulate educated opinions on the games, break points are extremely relevant in the handicapping effort. And, anything that gets the attention of cappers and bettors certainly bears consideration from the linesmaker.