The Ultimate Under

After more than 30 years of handicapping experience, I discovered an NFL totals tendency that I can say without a doubt is the strongest winning development I have ever come across in my handicapping efforts. How can I make such a bold statement you ask? Without sounding like a typical phony tout service, consider an NFL betting trend that covers about 67% of the time dating back to the 2002 season and averages about 11 plays per season. Sound good so far?

But before any trend can be qualified that puts hard earned money in harm’s way, it must prove to be relevant. Relevance in handicapping means the betting tendency is based on the current performance levels of the teams and the handicapping analysis features a matchup of the opposing performance levels for each NFL game. Think about it. How can you handicap a contest without factoring in how well each team is playing at the time of the contest?

Failure in this regard can lead to inconsistent winning tendencies based on coincidence. Unfortunately, the vast majority of NFL betting trends that are bantered about are of the coincidental variety. Handicapping decisions borne from short term coincidence are forever doomed to fail in the long term and it is only a matter of time before the long term catches up with the short term.

My illustrious trend is called the Ultimate Under and is based on what I term “scoring efficiency.” It is a measure of how hard an NFL team has to work to put points on the scoreboard and prevent the opposition from scoring. One popular method that aims to quantify scoring efficiency is yards per point and it is calculated just as it says: divide total yards gained by points scored for an offensive rating and divide total yards allowed by points allowed for a defensive rating.

The lower the offensive yards per point rating, the more efficient is the scoring offense as fewer yards from scrimmage are needed to score points. Conversely, the higher the defensive yards per point rating, the more efficient is the defense at preventing points as the opposition needs to gain more real estate to score points.

What is nice about yards per point is that it factors in red zone scoring efficiency and average starting field position – two key components to consider when betting totals. The Ultimate Under is based on yards per point matchups with home field advantage, red zone efficiency and strength of schedule considerations. In addition, pointspread and total ranges are included in the analysis. Therefore, the Ultimate Under conveys relevance to sound handicapping principals and practices.

Refer to the left column heading titled Home of the Ultimate Under for the seasonal results.

Handicapping the Early NFL Season

First and foremost, forget about handicapping or betting NFL pre-season contests. NFL coaches basically use these games to fill out the remaining roster spots. It is not about preparing seasoned vets for the upcoming season. The starting positions are largely set and the primary objective is to avoid injuries to key players. Like it or not, preseason football is all about generating additional money from the season ticket holders and television contracts for the league and teams. AND unscrupulous handicappers who claim they know how to pick winners in the preseason.

Regardless of what some self-proclaimed experts may want you to believe, there is no magical inside information that will predict the outcome of an NFL pre-season tilt. Even if the starters play well into the third period which usually occurs in each team’s third pre-season game, the games are still being finished out by a host of reserves where anything can happen to affect the outcome.

Why risk hard earned money on a 50-50 proposition where you are subject to the vigorish? This is surely a long term losing formula. I liken betting on NFL pre-season games to shooting craps, except you have to shoot 6 instead of 7. It’s a crapshoot with bad odds because of the vig and the handicapping information is worthless.

Matchup Handicapping begins making selections week 3 of the NFL season as Matchup Handicapping bases its ratings on at least three real games during the season. This means that the first two weeks are used only for data collection purposes.

Preseason

Do yourself a favor: AVOID placing bets on the preseason games. The only people that make money in the preseason are the sportsbooks, bookies and sport services selling selections.

Recent Performance

Recent performance in the NFL is defined as a two to four game period for Matchup Handicapping. Another important item worth considering is the use of break points. A break point is defined as a separation point between different performance levels for a given NFL team.

Look for a team's consistency over a stretch of games to determine whether recent performance is defined as two, three or four games.

The use of break points is a valuable handicapping tool for the NFL. It helps isolate more specific “current” performance levels of the NFL combatants. Since the vast majority of NFL handicappers and bettors look for consistent patterns of play in order to gauge how well teams are playing and formulate educated opinions on the games, break points are extremely relevant in the handicapping effort. And, anything that gets the attention of cappers and bettors certainly bears consideration from the linesmaker.

Pointspread Ranges

Each NFL game features a matchup of two teams that have been evaluated on their recent performance. Each team’s evaluation is assigned to one of five performance classes as discussed in previous articles. Then, the matchup is analyzed within the actual pointspread range for the game. Inclusion of the pointspread range locks in the matchup as it is perceived by the betting public and the linesmaker. I view this step as an absolute requirement because I maintain for any betting trend or tendency to have any credibility, it must factor in the applicable pointspread range.

Matchup Handicapping initially uses three pointspread ranges per game. A statistical analysis called the standard deviation conveniently divides all the spread values into normal, high or low ranges. The normal range is defined as approximately two-thirds of the values that fall within the average pointspread value. The remaining one-third of the games are where the pointspreads fall outside the normal range and are either high or low as compared to the normal range. This analysis allows the handicapper to more readily identify inaccurate pointspread values for a given game.

For example, when a good home favorite plays a good road dog, the normal pointspread range is between 2.5 and 7.5 points. A high value would be a spread greater than or equal to 8 and a low value would be a spread less than or equal to 2.

In plain terms, the three pointspread range approach for a given matchup helps show when favorites appear to be laying too many or too little points, and whether dogs appear to be getting too many or too little points.

Once the three ranges are established, the analysis proceeds with a more detailed breakdown. For example, for a given scenario, how have home favorites performed versus the pointspread when favored by less than 3 points? This more detailed pointspread range is ultimately involved the the pointspread selection process.